Global warming
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Dec 1, 2009 Posted by Judy Ferro
Excerpts and interpretation of "Leaders of the Pack," Newsweek, Nov. 30, 2009
Predictions:
- Nations will fail to adopt a climate treaty at Copenhagen
- Nations, states, and companies will continue to work toward controlling emissions
- The 2010 treaty will be a better treaty than the one being considered now.
Greenhouse-Gas Emissions (in million metric tons of CO2):
2007 China--8,106; U.S.--6,087; EU--4,641; India--1,963.
As part of a proposed cap-and-trade law, California has entered agreements with 8 Brazilian states and Indonesia for payments to prevent deforestation to offset CO2 emissions in California.
Predicted consequences of warming over 2 degrees Celsius...massive rise in sea levels which inundate major port cities, more frequent droughts and floods, loss of glaciers that provide fresh water in India and China, lethal heat waves, climate shifts that threaten farming
Reasons for predicting failure in Copenhagen:
- Nations doubt U.S. Senate would ratify a treaty.
- Developing nations want about $100 billion a year to help them switch
- China and India refuse to consider signing (India emits one ton per capita; the U.S., 20 tons)
Positive developments:
- Europe's current greenhouse-gas reduction program will run throug 2012
- 29 states require some percentage of electricity to be generated by zero-carbon fuels
- Green sales by Siemens (German electronics giant) exceeded $34 billion last year
- Coca-Cola is phasing out hydrofluorocarbons and cutting greenouse emissions from manufacturing 5% by 2015
- DuPont and Dow are working on producing ethanol from cellulose, waste biomass, and carbon dioxide itself plus solar-power roof shingles
- Enel (Europe's second-biggest utility by installed capacity) is using hydro, geothermal,wind, solar and biomass to generate power in Europe and the Americas; new solar plant in Italy will use giant mirrors
Serious problems:
- Wealthy nations have pledged to cut emissions 14% below 1990 levels by 2020; preventing the 2 degree C increase would require 25%-40% cuts
- China and India have pledged only 4% cuts from "what they would have been in 2020"; China is blanketing the country with wind turbins but emissions are expected to double by 2050
Improvements that could be made to a 2010 treaty:
- Include restoration of grazing lands
- Adding charcoal from plant waste to soil
- Limiting short-lived pollutants such as soot (account for half of the warming yet stay aloft for only days, not decades)